潍柴动力(000338) Strong engine margin expansion in 2024; 55% dividend payout ratio a record high

　　潍柴动力(000338)

　　Weichai’s net profit in2024grew27%YoY to RMB11.4bn,which is in line withour expectation.Net profit in4Q24grew19%YoY to RMB3bn,driven by28%/13%YoY reduction of S&D/R&D expenses despite a flat(YoY)revenue.Weichai proposed a final dividend of RMB0.347/shr.This,together with theinterim dividend,implies a payout ratio of55%(up from50%in2023),which isa record high level.We revise up our2025E/26E earnings forecast by9%/11%,mainly due to higher margin assumptions for engine segment.We see severalcatalysts for Weichai:(1)HDT demand recovery driven by new subsidies;(2)strong growth of engines for data centres;(3)potential re-rating of KION Group(KGX GR,NR).Our SOTP-based TP for A/H is revised up toRMB18.7/HK$18.0.Maintain BUY.

　　Key highlights in2024results:

　　Strong margin expansion for engine segment.Weichai delivered a totalengine sales of734k units(flat YoY).Exports,which grew5%,accountedfor9%of total engines sales.The segment revenue was down2%YoY toRMB59.4bn,due to a slight decrease in blended ASP(as a result of a8%sales volume decline in HDT engines which carried a higher ASP,in ourview).That said,the segment profit surged35%YoY to RMB10.3bn,drivenby a4.8ppt YoY expansion of segment margin(to17.5%).We forecast thesegment margin to expand to17.7%/17.8%in2025E/26E,driven by therecovery of HDT engine demand and strong growth of engines for datacentres.

　　HDT exports accounted for half of total HDT sales.Weichai delivered118k units of HDTs(1.7%YoY).Exports grew13%YoY to59k units(50%of total HDT sales).The segment recorded RMB563mn in profit in2024,with segment margin of0.9%.

　　Forklifts&supply chain solution(KION Group)profit grew driven bymargin.The segment profit grew21%YoY to RMB6bn in2024.WhileKION’s latest guidance for2025E is conservative(adjusted EBIT isexpected to be down5%-21%),we are positive on the medium-termoutlook thanks to Germany’s latest approval of the infrastructureinvestment plan.

　　Solid margin expansion for agricultural machinery.While the segmentrevenue growth slowed to3%in2H24from25%in1H24,the segmentmargin continued to expand.

　　Risk factors:1)weakness in engine exports;2)lower-than-expectedreplacement demand in China;(3)contraction of diesel/gas price ratio.Earnings Summary-2338HK

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