北方华创(002371)

　　Naura announced 3Q24 results. Q3 revenue was RMB8.0bn, up 30.1% YoYand 23.8% QoQ, driven by significant growth in semiconductor equipment sales(up 47.0% in 9M24). NP was RMB1.7bn, up 55.0% YoY and 1.7% QoQ. GPMwas 42.3%, up 5.9ppts from 3Q23 but declined 5.1ppts sequentially, mainly dueto 1) higher photovoltaic (PV) equipment sales that had a lower GPM and 2)seasonal fluctuations in gross margins of semiconductor equipment business.Overall, Q3 was a solid quarter with robust revenue and net profit growth.Maintain BUY, with TP adjusted to RMB426, reflecting 30x rollover 2025EP/E (vs. prev. 35.8x).

　　9M24 results showed Naura is on track with stellar growth. 9M24revenue grew 39.5% YoY, benefiting from continuously strong sales ofdomestic semiconductor equipment (up 47.0% YoY in 9M24) due to China’ssemi localization trend. 2025E bookings remain a key focus for mostinvestors but have not been announced yet (2024 bookings wereannounced in Jan, 2024). We maintain our sales growth forecasts for2024/25E at 39.7%/26.5% YoY.

　　Margin decreased 5.1ppts QoQ in 3Q24, a similar seasonality observedin 3Q23 (down 7.0ppts) in addition to a negative impact from increased PVequipment sales. We revise down our 2024/25E GPM forecast by1.3ppts/1.1ppts to reflect the seasonality trend in 2024/25E, but we expectGPM to continue its upward trend (43.7%/44.3%) in 2024/25E on afavourable product mix. We slightly lower our NP forecasts by 3%/4% in24/25E considering continued investments in R&D.

　　Maintain BUY with TP adjusted to RMB426, based on 30x rollover2025E P/E, close to its historical 2-year forward P/E. New TP also reflects1.0x PEG. Potential risks include 1) worsening China-US trade relations, 2)heightened geopolitical tensions, 3) slower-than-expected R&D.

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