CSC RESEARCH DAILY REPORTS
股票资讯
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2025-10-21 21:49:07
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Key takeaway
The most notable feature of September’s fiscal data is the strong tax revenueperformance. Four factors underlie this strength, which also represent four keymacro trends this year:1. Economic stabilization. The worst phase of the economy is graduallypassing, leading to an end to last year’s weak YoY tax performance.
2. Chinese manufacturing has withstood the impact of global tariff frictions,and exports have even outperformed expectations, leading to tax revenuesurpas sing the levels projected at the beginning of the year.
3. Fiscal policy now emphasizes transparency and tighter tax administration,allowing marginal economic improvements to be quickly reflected in fiscalrevenue.
4. The buoyant capital market has driven an increase in tax revenue. Forexample, the strong personal income tax performance in the first threequarters was mainly driven by higher-than-expected personal capital gainsamid the active capital market, while stamp duty also contributed to recent taxrevenue growth.
Monitoring fiscal data should focus more on the macro trends it reflects ratherthan solely on the strength of countercyclical policy. China’s fiscal stance hasc learly shifted—from large-scale countercyclical adjustments toward a longtermfocus on improving people’s livelihood and supporting technologicaladvancement. 机构：中信建投证券股份有限公司 研究员： 日期：2025-10-21
The most notable feature of September’s fiscal data is the strong tax revenueperformance. Four factors underlie this strength, which also represent four keymacro trends this year:1. Economic stabilization. The worst phase of the economy is graduallypassing, leading to an end to last year’s weak YoY tax performance.
2. Chinese manufacturing has withstood the impact of global tariff frictions,and exports have even outperformed expectations, leading to tax revenuesurpas sing the levels projected at the beginning of the year.
3. Fiscal policy now emphasizes transparency and tighter tax administration,allowing marginal economic improvements to be quickly reflected in fiscalrevenue.
4. The buoyant capital market has driven an increase in tax revenue. Forexample, the strong personal income tax performance in the first threequarters was mainly driven by higher-than-expected personal capital gainsamid the active capital market, while stamp duty also contributed to recent taxrevenue growth.
Monitoring fiscal data should focus more on the macro trends it reflects ratherthan solely on the strength of countercyclical policy. China’s fiscal stance hasc learly shifted—from large-scale countercyclical adjustments toward a longtermfocus on improving people’s livelihood and supporting technologicaladvancement. 机构：中信建投证券股份有限公司 研究员： 日期：2025-10-21
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