CHINA FOCUS STRATEGY：SOUTHBOUND TRADING CONTINUED TO REPORT DECENT INFLOW YTD IN 2025
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2025-09-27 18:39:46
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The Hong Kong stock market rose with rising trading turnover YTD in 2025. As of 25 September 2025, average daily turnover came to HK$255.3bn YTD, substantially higher than HK$108.2bn in the same period of last year and HK$131.8bn in 2024 full year. Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng TECH Index increased 32.03% and 42.77% YTD respectively as of 25 September 2025. The Hang Seng China AH Premium Index decreased from 143.0 on 31 December 2024 to 119.81 on 25 September 2025, equivalent to an average premium of 19.81% for A shares over H shares. As of 25 September 2025, all sectors reported positive gains YTD in 2025, among which material, healthcare, and information technology sectors performed better with gains of 116.04%, 90.51% and 60.74% YTD, respectively. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong IPO market has also boomed this year amid rising market liquidity.
Average daily turnover for the month to 25 September 2025 reached more than HK$310bn. We noted that the HKMA has started selling USD for HKD since 26 June as the weak-side convertibility undertaking of HK$7.85 to US$1 was triggered. However, Hong Kong financial market liquidity stabilised in September as investors expected Federal Reserve to cut interest rate for two or three times this year. As a result, the Hong Kong banking sector's aggregate balance reached HK$54.21bn on 25 September 2025, which was largely unchanged from HK$54.06bn on 29 August 2025, and still higher than HK$44.6bn on 2 May 2025. Meanwhile, the HIBOR overnight rate reached 3.59% on 25 September 2025, still below 4.22% on 2 May 2025. We believe the HKMA's move to sell US$ for HK$ will only have small impacts on Hong Kong stock market as these funds mainly have lower risk appetites and focused on deposits with higher interest rates . We noted that the Hong Kong stock market liquidity remained quite abundant as the average daily turnover for the month to 25 September 2025 reached HK$316.6bn, which was still at historically high levels.
Southbound trading reported a net inflow of RMB1,061.8bn YTD, up 137.5% YoY. We believe that southbound trading has reported a decent net inflow in the past few years and played an important role in stabilising the Hong Kong stock market amid geopolitical risk. As of 25 September 2025, we noted that southbound trading has reported a decent net inflow YTD amid high expectation of domestic high technology boom and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Southbound trading reported a net inflow of RMB1,061.8bn YTD, substantially higher than the net inflow of RMB447.1bn in the same period of last year. Furthermore, southbound trading plays a key role in improving investment sentiment and stock pick ideas in Hong Kong stock market. Over the years, Mainland-related companies have gradually held a dominant position in the HK stock market. According to HKEX, as of the end of August 2025, total Mainland-related company stocks accounted for 81.12% of the total market capitalisation and 90.90% of total trading turnover. Year to 25 September 2025, southbound trading accounted for 24.1% of the average daily turnover in Hong Kong, compared with 17.3% in 2024, 14.1% in 2023 and 11.8% in 2022, respectively.
We now expect Mainland-HK southbound trading to report a net inflow of RMB1.3trn in 2025, up from our previous expectation of RMB1.2trn. Looking ahead, we expect mainland investors’ strong demand for HK-listed stocks via southbound trading link will maintain in 4Q25 mainly due to more selections of high quality technology/highend manufacturing stocks, the attractive valuations and high dividend yields of HK stock market. We expect Mainland-HK southbound trading to report a net inflow of RMB1.3trn in 2025, up from our previous expectation of RMB1.2trn. In our view, the Mainland-HK Stock Connect will be a key driver for the potential re-rating of the HK market in the long term. Investment behaviour data YTD show that southbound investors have paid attention to the internet, telecoms and semiconductor sectors.
We recommend investors to pay close attention to some actively traded stocks for the southbound link, which include (1) Alibaba Group Holding Limited (9988 HK/NR) as the company is dedicated to executing its consumption and AI + Cloud investment schemes, and reaping the benefits of enhanced synergies from quick commerce reflected by solid core China CMR, accelerated cloud momentum and improved organisational efficiency within the whole ecosystem; (2) Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD) as the company is expanding its TAM through business innovation and improving operational efficiency and user stickiness, laying a solid foundation for an earnings recovery in 2026; (3) Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK/BUY) as the company will increasingly benefit from AI demonstrated by sustainable and smooth high quality growth of core business segments and progressive AI commercialisations leveraging various integrated use scenarios within vibrant Weixin ecosystem with diversified AI products and features; (4) Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (981 HK/BUY) as the company may benefit from the resumption of investor sentiment on domestic substitution theme as the global narratives are now moving back to local-for-local or facing a 100% tariff, and the GPT-5 launch will likely sustain AI capex demand and SMIC is the only domestic advanced-node player to go to; (5) China Mobile Limited (941 HK/BUY) as the company reported solid results despite unfavourable external condition, and its selfbuilt AI calculating power remains at the leading position among Chinese Cloud infrastructure providers; (6) Horizon Robotics (9660 HK/NR) for its leading smart driving chip technology, solid automaker partnerships, and deep commercial moat. 机构：中银国际研究有限公司 研究员：Eric HU/Freya REN 日期：2025-09-27
Average daily turnover for the month to 25 September 2025 reached more than HK$310bn. We noted that the HKMA has started selling USD for HKD since 26 June as the weak-side convertibility undertaking of HK$7.85 to US$1 was triggered. However, Hong Kong financial market liquidity stabilised in September as investors expected Federal Reserve to cut interest rate for two or three times this year. As a result, the Hong Kong banking sector's aggregate balance reached HK$54.21bn on 25 September 2025, which was largely unchanged from HK$54.06bn on 29 August 2025, and still higher than HK$44.6bn on 2 May 2025. Meanwhile, the HIBOR overnight rate reached 3.59% on 25 September 2025, still below 4.22% on 2 May 2025. We believe the HKMA's move to sell US$ for HK$ will only have small impacts on Hong Kong stock market as these funds mainly have lower risk appetites and focused on deposits with higher interest rates . We noted that the Hong Kong stock market liquidity remained quite abundant as the average daily turnover for the month to 25 September 2025 reached HK$316.6bn, which was still at historically high levels.
Southbound trading reported a net inflow of RMB1,061.8bn YTD, up 137.5% YoY. We believe that southbound trading has reported a decent net inflow in the past few years and played an important role in stabilising the Hong Kong stock market amid geopolitical risk. As of 25 September 2025, we noted that southbound trading has reported a decent net inflow YTD amid high expectation of domestic high technology boom and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Southbound trading reported a net inflow of RMB1,061.8bn YTD, substantially higher than the net inflow of RMB447.1bn in the same period of last year. Furthermore, southbound trading plays a key role in improving investment sentiment and stock pick ideas in Hong Kong stock market. Over the years, Mainland-related companies have gradually held a dominant position in the HK stock market. According to HKEX, as of the end of August 2025, total Mainland-related company stocks accounted for 81.12% of the total market capitalisation and 90.90% of total trading turnover. Year to 25 September 2025, southbound trading accounted for 24.1% of the average daily turnover in Hong Kong, compared with 17.3% in 2024, 14.1% in 2023 and 11.8% in 2022, respectively.
We now expect Mainland-HK southbound trading to report a net inflow of RMB1.3trn in 2025, up from our previous expectation of RMB1.2trn. Looking ahead, we expect mainland investors’ strong demand for HK-listed stocks via southbound trading link will maintain in 4Q25 mainly due to more selections of high quality technology/highend manufacturing stocks, the attractive valuations and high dividend yields of HK stock market. We expect Mainland-HK southbound trading to report a net inflow of RMB1.3trn in 2025, up from our previous expectation of RMB1.2trn. In our view, the Mainland-HK Stock Connect will be a key driver for the potential re-rating of the HK market in the long term. Investment behaviour data YTD show that southbound investors have paid attention to the internet, telecoms and semiconductor sectors.
We recommend investors to pay close attention to some actively traded stocks for the southbound link, which include (1) Alibaba Group Holding Limited (9988 HK/NR) as the company is dedicated to executing its consumption and AI + Cloud investment schemes, and reaping the benefits of enhanced synergies from quick commerce reflected by solid core China CMR, accelerated cloud momentum and improved organisational efficiency within the whole ecosystem; (2) Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD) as the company is expanding its TAM through business innovation and improving operational efficiency and user stickiness, laying a solid foundation for an earnings recovery in 2026; (3) Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK/BUY) as the company will increasingly benefit from AI demonstrated by sustainable and smooth high quality growth of core business segments and progressive AI commercialisations leveraging various integrated use scenarios within vibrant Weixin ecosystem with diversified AI products and features; (4) Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (981 HK/BUY) as the company may benefit from the resumption of investor sentiment on domestic substitution theme as the global narratives are now moving back to local-for-local or facing a 100% tariff, and the GPT-5 launch will likely sustain AI capex demand and SMIC is the only domestic advanced-node player to go to; (5) China Mobile Limited (941 HK/BUY) as the company reported solid results despite unfavourable external condition, and its selfbuilt AI calculating power remains at the leading position among Chinese Cloud infrastructure providers; (6) Horizon Robotics (9660 HK/NR) for its leading smart driving chip technology, solid automaker partnerships, and deep commercial moat. 机构：中银国际研究有限公司 研究员：Eric HU/Freya REN 日期：2025-09-27
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